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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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