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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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