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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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