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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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