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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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