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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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