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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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