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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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