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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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