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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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