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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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