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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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