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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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