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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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