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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
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