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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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