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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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