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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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