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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CIL LOOKING TO TAP NON-POWER SECTORS FOR INCREMENTAL COAL, PTI REPORTED
The miner is looking to ramp up production to meet its targets for the current fiscal at a time when the economic slowdown is impacting demand for ...
Friday, 07 February 20
VIRUS - HIT CHINA MAY NEED MORE IMPORTS OF COAL. NOW COMES THE TRICKY PART - SHIPPING IT THERE: REUTERS
China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. That’s a situation th ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus has dented market sentiment and spooked markets around the globe. When China sneezes, we all catch the flu. T ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Cape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-h ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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