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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
COAL IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE - MINING REVIEW
The coal sector is living under the constant threat of being blamed by environmentalists as being responsible for a world disaster called global wa ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
CIL PRODUCTION TO NOT EXCEED 640 MILLION TON IN FY20: OFFICIAL - PTI
Hit by disruptions due to a prolonged monsoon, mining major Coal India Ltd’s production in the current fiscal will not exceed 640 million ton ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
WHO PAYS FOR IMO 2020? - FREIGHT WAVES
The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented its low-sulfur fuel mandate on January 1, 2020. Full enforcement be ...
Friday, 31 January 20
EIA EXPECTS U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES TO SOON SURPASS NUCLEAR AND COAL
In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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