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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 February 20
CAPE: THE AVERAGE EARNINGS PER DAY FELL BENEATH THE USD 4,000, A LEVEL CONSIDERABLY BELOW EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OPEX LEVELS - ALLIED
The recent slump in the dry bulk freight market may well have been expected to some degree, but despite this the shock was still overwhelming when ...
Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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