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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 February 20
CHINESE DEMAND KEY UNCERTAINTY FOR SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2020 - THE BRICS POST
Coal trader Noble Resources head of research Rodrigo Echeverri Cardozo had penciled in a 3 Mt drop in Chinese import demand for 2020, but it could ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - WATSON, FARLEY & WILLIAMS
The continued spread of Coronavirus and governmental measures to minimise the impact is likely to affect the shipping industry and supply chain.
...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
INDONESIA'S COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.46% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The oil and gas industry benefitted from a strong and solid ground in the previous year. We witnessed a slow but steady increase in bunker’s ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
RUSSIA EXPORTED 28.6 MLN TONNES OF LNG IN 2019 - REFINITIV
A lot of attention has been paid recently on the surge in LNG exports from the United States. However, another country which is seeing truly expone ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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