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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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