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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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