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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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