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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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