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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
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