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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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