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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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