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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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