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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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