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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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Showing 1436 to 1440 news of total 6871 |
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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