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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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