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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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