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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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