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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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