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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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