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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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