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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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