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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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