We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
|
|
|
Showing 1566 to 1570 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
