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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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