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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
Monday, 07 May 18
BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DROPPED BACK BELOW $90 A TON THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1812 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 3 May 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 5.5 ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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