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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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