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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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