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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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