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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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