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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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