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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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