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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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