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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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