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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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