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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
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