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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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