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Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in combination with the deadly dam accident in Brazil earlier this year. The latter is a serious disruption that has already had an immediate negative impact on Capesize earnings. Brazil is the world’s second largest iron ore producer country after Australia, with approx. 70% of exports going to East Asia, and most iron ore consists of the highest quality found worldwide that does not require much processing. In addition, other production sites in Brazil are now in the public eye and currently under scrutiny when it comes down to their procedures, safety protocols and infrastructure and might not be able to increase production as desired. Hence, the imminent decrease of Brazil’s output will definitely reduce ton-mile revenue for Capes. The question now is if China is able to, and if they will respond with an increase of their domestic production from their high-cost mines, which will furthermore keep Cape revenues from rebounding to previous higher observed levels.
Besides the Capesize segment, the sudden drop and the swift reversal of sentiment was observed across all major trading routes and all ship sizes. This could be due to the turbulence deriving from the US-China trade war. While many reports/forecasts have been published and a lot of opinions have been heard, the only sure thing is that it adds uncertainty to the an already worrying global economy and a puzzled (amid coming regulations) shipping ecosystem. In the beginning, when the second worldwide largest economy showed signals of slowing down and seemed unable to maintain growth figures, analysts were pointing to the trade war. Recently though, many are wondering if a Chinese structural and fundamental problem will soon surface. In my point of view, if such problem does exist, the shipping world should focus on how the Chinese administration would tackle it. The country’s administration is currently signaling potential further stimulus measures and several are debating if such a program will have a positive impact on seaborne trade and to what degree.
The very slow fresh cargo supply of the past couple of months resulted in a slowdown of SnP activity, which is down 33% ytd. However, from the start of last week a more normal flow of cargo is observed and the BDI showed signs of recovering. At the same time, comparing past week’s SnP market to the start of this month we noted fresh prospective buyers coming on-board ships, while proven buyers took the opportunity to test sellers with levels depicting current market conditions and establishing new market levels.
Whilst some owners worry that we are entering a global bear market and are skeptical if this downturn was an indicator of a more structural issue, the BDI is now on a positive trend and others believe that we are heading towards more stable days having just experienced a short parenthesis in a market that is generally moving towards a healthy recovery and in that respect they maintain their bullish views and appetite for candidates offered at levels in line with current freight rates.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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