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Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in combination with the deadly dam accident in Brazil earlier this year. The latter is a serious disruption that has already had an immediate negative impact on Capesize earnings. Brazil is the world’s second largest iron ore producer country after Australia, with approx. 70% of exports going to East Asia, and most iron ore consists of the highest quality found worldwide that does not require much processing. In addition, other production sites in Brazil are now in the public eye and currently under scrutiny when it comes down to their procedures, safety protocols and infrastructure and might not be able to increase production as desired. Hence, the imminent decrease of Brazil’s output will definitely reduce ton-mile revenue for Capes. The question now is if China is able to, and if they will respond with an increase of their domestic production from their high-cost mines, which will furthermore keep Cape revenues from rebounding to previous higher observed levels.
Besides the Capesize segment, the sudden drop and the swift reversal of sentiment was observed across all major trading routes and all ship sizes. This could be due to the turbulence deriving from the US-China trade war. While many reports/forecasts have been published and a lot of opinions have been heard, the only sure thing is that it adds uncertainty to the an already worrying global economy and a puzzled (amid coming regulations) shipping ecosystem. In the beginning, when the second worldwide largest economy showed signals of slowing down and seemed unable to maintain growth figures, analysts were pointing to the trade war. Recently though, many are wondering if a Chinese structural and fundamental problem will soon surface. In my point of view, if such problem does exist, the shipping world should focus on how the Chinese administration would tackle it. The country’s administration is currently signaling potential further stimulus measures and several are debating if such a program will have a positive impact on seaborne trade and to what degree.
The very slow fresh cargo supply of the past couple of months resulted in a slowdown of SnP activity, which is down 33% ytd. However, from the start of last week a more normal flow of cargo is observed and the BDI showed signs of recovering. At the same time, comparing past week’s SnP market to the start of this month we noted fresh prospective buyers coming on-board ships, while proven buyers took the opportunity to test sellers with levels depicting current market conditions and establishing new market levels.
Whilst some owners worry that we are entering a global bear market and are skeptical if this downturn was an indicator of a more structural issue, the BDI is now on a positive trend and others believe that we are heading towards more stable days having just experienced a short parenthesis in a market that is generally moving towards a healthy recovery and in that respect they maintain their bullish views and appetite for candidates offered at levels in line with current freight rates.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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