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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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