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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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