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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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